![]() When more children survive, families tend to have fewer children.Īlso, educating girls plays a very important part here. When it comes to large-populated states, Kerala and Tamil Nadu had the lowest under-5 mortality rates of 5.2 and 22, respectively. As per the NFHS-5, the deaths per live births for a period of five years before the survey was the highest in UP, at 60 children per 1,000 live births. The under-5 mortality rate is defined as the probability of a child dying between birth and the child’s fifth birthday. So, how can states bring down their fertility rates? There is a very strong link between the under-5 mortality rate and the fertility rate. The high fertility rate of the past has ensured that the population in the state continues to grow at a faster pace than in India’s southern states. Nonetheless, the state is paying for having had a very high fertility rate of 3.82 as late as 2005-06, the year when the NFHS-3 was carried out. The state has a fertility rate of 2.35, which is not as high as that of Bihar. What’s true of Bihar is also true for Uttar Pradesh (UP), where the state’s GDP grew by 4.2% during 2021-22 whereas the per-capita income grew by a much lower 2.7%. This leads to faster population growth and hence the average income of a Bihari does not grow as fast as that of the overall state. While the fertility rate in Bihar has fallen over the years, it is still very high. In the case of Bihar, the fertility rate as per NFHS-5 stood at 2.98. This has been happening in Tamil Nadu and other southern states, with their population growth having slowed down over the years. When the fertility rate is lower than the replacement level, then the population growth first slows down and then starts to contract, assuming that the fertility rate continues to remain lower than the replacement level. When 100 women on average have 210 children during their child bearing years, the population tends to stabilize in the coming decades. In fact, the rate has been below the replacement level of 2.1. ![]() Tamil Nadu has had a low-fertility rate among women for a while now. This basically means that 100 women on average have 176 children during their child-bearing years. As per the National Family and Health Survey 5 (NFHS-5), 2019-2021, the total fertility rate in Tamil Nadu was 1.76. Basically, states like Bihar pay a tax for higher population growth, which is not the case with Tamil Nadu.Īs he writes: “All southern states, by virtue of having had below-replacement fertility rates for over a generation, realize their economic growth almost entirely because their populations have stabilized." What does this mean in simple English? The fertility rate of a state is defined as the number of children born to a woman on average. has an explanation in South vs North: India’s Great Divide. So, what is happening here? Nilakantan R.S. The per capita income of Tamil Nadu stood at ₹1.54 lakh, whereas that of Bihar was ₹30,779 (in real terms adjusted for inflation). ![]() The difference in this case is 160 basis points. In the case of Bihar, the state’s GDP in 2021-22 rose by 11%, whereas the per-capita income rose by 9.4%. ![]() The difference in this case was around 40 basis points. The state’s GDP in 2021-22 rose by 8%, whereas the per-capita income rose by a lower 7.6%. While the difference at an aggregate India level was 110 basis points, the difference at state levels varied quite a bit.
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